Poker probability table
Michaël AdminPoker probability tables: understanding, calculating, and using statistics like a pro
Probability is at the heart of modern poker. All professional players rely on precise statistical calculations to determine whether it's profitable to bet, call, or fold. Probability tables allow them to assess the true strength of a hand, the chances of improvement, and the likelihood that an opponent holds a better hand.
Here is a complete, expert and data-driven guide to mastering probabilities in poker.
1. What is a probability table in poker?
A probability table groups together all the statistics useful for:
- know the frequency of starting hands (preflop);
- calculate the chances of improving a draw on the flop or turn;
- understand the rarity of final combinations;
- estimate your actual chances of winning a hand.
Probabilities bring structure to your decision-making and replace intuition with reliable numbers.
2. Preflop probabilities: the mathematical reality of starting hands
Starting hands are not all created equal: some are extremely rare and powerful, others common but weak. Here are the official probabilities:
Preflop probability table
| Hand served | Probability | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Any pair served | 5.88% | 1 of 17 |
| AA | 0.45% | 1 of 221 |
| KK | 0.45% | 1 of 221 |
| 0.45% | 1 of 221 | |
| JJ | 0.45% | 1 of 221 |
| Matching AKs | 0.30% | 1 of 333 |
| Two suited cards | 23.5% | 1 out of 4 |
| Two connected cards | 15–16% | Approximately 1 in 6 |
| 7-2 offsuit (worst hand in Hold'em) | 1.21% | 1 of 83 |
Strategic reading
- Premium hands are rare → aggressive valuation .
- Weak hands must be discarded → long-term savings .
- Connected or matching hands gain value in multiway pots.
3. Post-flop improvement probabilities: outs, draws, and equity
After the flop, your decision depends primarily on your outs , that is, the remaining cards that can improve your hand.
Complete table of outs and probabilities
| Outs | Example of a draw | Chance Turn + River | Turn only | River only |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 out | Full or unlikely square | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 2 outs | Marginal improvement | 8.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 4 outs | Closed straight draw (gutshot) | 16.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 6 outs | Two overcards | 24% | 12% | 12% |
| 8 outs | Open straight | 31.5% | 17% | 17% |
| 9 outs | Color print | 35% | 19% | 19% |
| 12 outs | Combo draw (straight + potential flush) | 45% | 25% | 25% |
| 15 outs | Monster draw | 54% | 32% | 32% |
Concrete example
You have 8 outs (open straight) after the flop.
Your probability of improving by the river: 31.5% .
Approximately one third of cases → very feasible depending on the size of the pot.
4. Probabilities of final combinations on the river
Here are the probabilities of obtaining the final combinations in a complete deck (5 final cards):
Table of final combinations
| Combination | Probability | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Height | 17.4% | — |
| A pair | 43.8% | 1 out of 2 hands |
| Double pair | 23.5% | 1 out of 4 |
| Three of a kind | 4.8% | 1 of 21 |
| Fifth | 4.6% | 1 of 22 |
| Color | 3% | 1 of 33 |
| Full | 2.6% | 1 of 38 |
| Square | 0.17% | 1 of 594 |
| Straight flush | 0.0014% | 1 in 72,000 |
Strategic reading
- Very strong hands are extremely rare → value them to the maximum .
- One pair is the most common combination → never overestimate it , especially multiway.
5. The 4 and 2 rule: the pro players' quick tool
To calculate probabilities in real-world situations without a table:
Method :
- After the flop → OUTS × 4
- After the turn → OUTS × 2
Examples:
- Color print (9 outs): 9 × 4 ≈ 36%
- Open straight (8 outs): 8 × 4 ≈ 32%
- Gutshot (4 outs): 4 × 4 = 16%
Simple, fast, reliable: used everywhere in live tournaments.
6. EV+ / EV- Decisions: How to use probabilities to play better?
Table of common situations
| Situation | Print run | Probability | Recommended decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Small pot + weak draft | 4 outs | ~16% | To go to bed |
| Big pot + strong draft | 8–9 outs | 31–35% | Follow up / relaunch |
| Combo draw (12–15 outs) | — | 45–54% | Very aggressive |
| Top pair on dangerous board | — | Depends on the number of opponents | Caution |
| AA preflop multiway | — | — | Mandatory follow-up |
Essential strategic reminder
Poker is a long-term game.
Decisions must maximize expected value (EV).
Probabilities are your best tool for eliminating costly mistakes.
Conclusion
Probability charts are an essential tool for becoming a structured, disciplined, and long-term winning player. They allow you to objectively assess the strength of your hand, your chances of improvement, and the profitability of your decisions.
By combining this knowledge with strategy, positioning, and reading your opponent, you can truly elevate your game. Although probability charts are not a guarantee of success, they can help you make better decisions and improve your overall poker game.
Probability table
The Positions
